The arrival of Joe Biden to the Presidency of the United States fuels speculation about the kind of foreign policy that his administration will be able to deploy. In particular, this expectation centers on the kind of approach that the new head of the White House will be able to adopt in the face of the growing rivalry between Washington and Beijing, a point at which the outgoing Trump Administration maintained a method of frontal confrontation.

But to understand the relations between China and the United States, it is convenient to review the most salient recent historical events in that political landspace.

After the Cold War, the United States was going through the "unipolar" period that followed the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The collapse of the socialist empire in Eastern Europe that began two years earlier after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the failure of the communist experiment awoke hopes about "the end of History." Suddenly optimists emerged who imagined the arrival of a time when the world would move towards democracy and a market economy. But a series of events would show that this hope was inordinate. On the morning of September 11, 2001, a massive attack on the United States decisively changed the global scene. Seven years later, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers triggered the global financial crisis that affected virtually the entire planet.

Interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, in turn, seriously undermined US prestige during the Bush era in the first decade of the century. Such operations - especially the one in Iraq - caused a breakdown in the international system for having been decided unilaterally outside of the United Nations Security Council. Meanwhile, China continued on its path of sweeping growth. In November 2001, as the United States recovered from the devastating blow of September 11, China gained access to the World Trade Organization. Five years later, it surpassed Germany and became the third largest global economy, while in 2010 it displaced Japan and became the second largest GDP in the world.

The rise of China as a global power is undoubtedly the central data of the time that we have to live. The way in which this elevation is processed constitutes the axis of debate for the vast majority of international political analysts around the world.

Unlike the United States -perhaps the most benefited country in history- China lives with geographical difficulties that are impossible to change. While the United States enjoys a privileged position, protected by two immense oceans and with two neighbors that do not offer threats like Canada and Mexico, the leaders of Beijing cannot ignore an undeniable reality. That which arises from the fact that China is surrounded by powers - many of them with nuclear weapons - with which it maintains ancient rivalry relations. Currently, China has conflicting ties with India, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and although it has a short-term relationship with Russia, this is derived from a fact that it does not control and that arises from the misunderstandings that the Kremlin maintains with the West.

Meanwhile, the crisis derived from the pandemic arising from the appearance of COVID-19 has deepened the conflict between Washington and Beijing, based on the American accusation - and other Western countries - on the alleged Chinese responsibility in the matter.

Former Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said three weeks ago during the Caixin Summit in China´s capital that trade frictions between Washington and Beijing will persist despite the change of government in the United States. Days before, the shares of Chinese companies and Asia in general had increased considerably since it became known on Saturday the 7th that the Democratic candidate had managed to displace Trump.

The Trump Administration had abandoned the so-called Trans-Pacific Treaty (TPP) at the beginning of its mandate, had launched a "trade war" in mid-2018 and would go so far as to accuse the Chinese Communist Party of unjustifiably benefiting from its status as an ongoing economy. development according to the World Trade Organization classification. The disputes would escalate in the months and years that continued to see both Washington and Beijing impose tariffs and sanctions that affected waves of global trade. The incumbent president´s defeat therefore fueled optimism about a possible return to times of greater cooperation.

A direct confrontation at the military level between China and the United States appears as an unlikely hypothesis for most analysts. However, there is a consensus that the rise of China as a global power is called to inevitably arouse the concern of the established power that in today´s world is still the United States. The so-called "Thucydides Trap" would in that case be an inevitable scenario.

Other visions respond to a realistic vision and warn that the clash between China and the United States is an inevitable fact. Some realist specialists maintain that a rapprochement with Russia appears on the horizon as an imperative of the hour since in the present historical circumstances the rising power is not the former Soviet Union but the People´s Republic of China. Others argue that a less confrontational approach with China could provide better prospects for conducting a relationship that is doomed to determine to a large extent the course of global events in the immediate future.

It is valid to anticipate that the U.S. could elaborate their approach in the immediate future based on three possibilities. The first would imply attempting a joint negotiation with China along with european leaders, the second to start talks alone in the belief that the Europeans will end up joining or the third directly not fixing anything, waiting for a withdrawal from Beijing. However, the problem linked to the situation of human rights in China -for example in relation to the Muslim minority of the Uyghurs- will continue to be a reason for distances between the powers.

Forecasting the future is a risky exercise for any analyst because the time to come belongs to the realm of the unknown. For its part, the study of history offers a limited device for delving into some lessons about the great permanent trends that govern the relations of force between countries.

When he assumes the presidency on January 20, Biden will be the most experienced man in foreign policy -with the sole exception of George H. W. Bush- to reach the Oval Room in the last four decades. Only time will tell if those conditions will be sufficient to lead his country in the difficult task of facing the troubled times that rule the global scene.