In recent months, China exhibited a dual epicenter character. As well as being one of the fundamental pieces of the world economy, it became the place of origin of the new coronavirus pandemic. While the Asian giant´s economy recovers after the difficulties caused by the health crisis, its image is deteriorating in a large part of the developed countries. Even the president of the United States Donald Trump is seeking to electorally capitalize on China´s growing discredit and hold it responsible for the pandemic. Accused of hiding information, ignoring the first warnings that alerted to the emergence of the virus, and giving late notices to the World Health Organization (WHO), the Chinese government, with its authoritarian features, is again at the center of the scene.

How will this impact the Chinese rise? ¿Can this slow down its rise or is it an ongoing process impossible to stop? What is the price that China will have to pay if it is identified as allegedly responsible for the spread of the virus? Could this deteriorate its ties to the rest of the world? What other problems lie behind attempts to hold China accountable?

Although analysts predict that a brake on China´s rise is unlikely, they caution that China may indeed pay a cost if it is held responsible. Part of that cost has already been reflected in the increase in the negative image of the Chinese regime in Europe, the United States and other developed countries. However, in a multipolar order, it is difficult for Trump´s speech to jump the border and have an echo in the rest of the world, which, in the midst of a sharp economic downturn, needs more than ever investment and business with China to achieve a revival. This supposed guilt hides and actually reflects deeper problems, such as the crisis in Western democracies or criticism of a globalized capitalism model that threatens the environment.

According to the latest report by the Pew Research Center, the Chinese image suffered a sharp deterioration in the most advanced economies. In the United States, the number of people with unfavorable views on China doubled between 2005 and 2020 (from 35% to 73). In the UK it quadrupled - jumped from 16 to 74% in the same time period. France, Germany and Spain show similar evolutions. In most cases, this critical view increased strongly during this year, due to the rejection of Chinese health policies, considered insufficient to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Of the 14 countries analyzed, 11 exhibited a growth in unfavorable views on China compared to last year. The negative perception of the Chinese regime thus reached a historical record.

The claims about an alleged concealment of information are linked to the centralist features of the Chinese government, which is structured on the basis of a communist model with national characteristics. It is a one-party system, with the particularity that Xi Jinping´s leadership is becoming more personal every day. This reality could have negative consequences on the health crisis, since it could have contributed to weaken the internal warning systems.

Although the first cases were registered in late December, it was not until January 20 that the Chinese government confirmed that the virus was transmitted between humans. Wuhan doctors who warned of the virus in early January, such as Li Wenliang, who died in February after suffering from coronavirus, were suppressed by police authorities.

The centralized Chinese political system prevented a rapid initial response to the coronavirus outbreak, was later effective in implementing containment measures with strict confinements. In this sense, when analyzing the Chinese government´s response to the virus, the average of the countries evaluated by the Pew Research Center shows that 61% consider that the crisis was poorly managed. Only 37% of people surveyed believe that China did a good job dealing with the virus.

The american president Donald Trump took advantage of the scenario of growing discredit. In the middle of the electoral campaign pointed against the alleged Chinese culpability as a strategy to achieve his re-election. In this way, he seeks to build on the existing discontent in his own country and in the developed world in general with respect to China, as he did in the previous presidential elections of 2016.

Trump´s anti-China speech was kept in the presidential debate, in his campaign activities, in his speeches or before the United Nations General Assembly, where Xi Jinping also accused Trump. This fact led the UN Secretary General, António Guterres, to exclaim that "we are moving in a dangerous direction" and that we must "avoid a new Cold War." The question is how much of Trump´s anti-Chinese discourse will be able to permeate beyond U.S. borders.

However, Trump is not a popular leader in the rest of the world and this to some extent limits the effectiveness of his anti-China speech. It´s doubtful that Germany and France, are easily influenced by Trump. Nor will Trump´s speech impact China´s allies, such as Russia. It´s been a long time since we lived in a unipolar world

Multipolarity is precisely one of the main differences with respect to the Cold War, a period that was characterized by a bipolar scheme, crossed by a strong ideological load where two completely opposite economic models faced each other. The same is not the case with China. Until now, the link with Western countries had been de-ideologized and pragmatic, prioritizing commercial and economic ties.

Economic and commercial relations tend to be de-ideologized in the world of the 21st century. Trump has sought the opposite: the ideologization of differences and competencies. But national and international politics in reality are displaced more by a shade of gray than black and white. China is accused by Trump, but there is no indictment on international institutions. In turn, the United States suffers criticism and questioning for the way in which it faced the pandemic, something against which China has shown more effectiveness.

Furthermore, the electoral result of the Novemeber presidential elections can lead to very different situations on this issue. If the democrat candidate Joe Biden wins the election the tension with China would be reduced.

Another question will be what happens in the less developed countries, which need investment and trade with the Asian giant to resume the path of economic growth after the negative impact that the pandemic will leave on their economies. It will also be key for the developed world to preserve the economic link with China, which plays an increasingly vital role in the world economy.

It will be more difficult to convince countries in need foreign investment to blame China for the pandemic. It´s detrimental to them to refuse to maintain the link with China which benefits them. Trump doesn´t have much to demand. China´s way to defeat the U.S. is by the means the later created, that is, with capitalism, free markets, investment, globalization, multilateralism, and competition. They do not expand their influence in the world, except in their closest region, but with money, investments and infrastructure.

According to the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China will be the only country that will grow this year, at a rate of 1.9%. For the rest of the countries, falls of different nature and magnitude are expected. The first clear signs of recovery are already looming in the Chinese economy. Retail sales and consumption have already started to recover, and exports grew in the last quarter. China grows and the world falls. This further reinforces the need for investment and trade from the Asian country, considered still emerging despite its strong growth in recent decades.

Today China occupies a central place in the world economy, and that is the key to explain why its rise will not slow down despite the deterioration of its image. And why Western countries will have to live with the Chinese regime, even when public opinion in the developed world disapproves of his leadership style and his handling of the health crisis.

Trump´s anti-Chinese speech to enlist the support of Europe in the fight against China is unsuccessful in the apparent objective of countering the influence of China. In addition to the fact that Europe is already convinced of China´s mishandling of the pandemic, European countries prioritize a healthy relationship with China. However, a speech focused on denouncing irresponsible globalization, a model of capitalism that causes serious environmental problems or the generalized crisis that democracies suffer today, problems for which China is also to blame, could be more successful.

Devlin, K., Huang, C., Silver, L. (1967). (2020). Unfavorable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries.Pew Research Center. Retrieved November 1, 2020, from https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-views-of-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries/